Pakistan face complex qualification scenario following Sri Lanka exit

New Zealand’s emphatic 61-run victory over Sri Lanka has left Pakistan’s semi-final hopes at the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2026 hanging by a thread as Super Eights Group 2 enters its decisive phase.

The New Zealand outclassed hosts Sri Lanka to effectively knock them out of the tournament and significantly strengthen their own qualification bid.
Asked to bat first, New Zealand posted a competitive 168-7 from their 20 overs, built around a gritty 47 from captain Mitchell Santner.

The total proved well beyond Sri Lanka, who slumped to 107-8 in reply, never threatening the chase.

All-rounder Rachin Ravindra was named player of the match after contributing a brisk 32 off 22 balls, including a six and three fours, and playing a key role with the ball as New Zealand dominated all facets of the contest.

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The 61-run win delivered a major boost to New Zealand’s net run rate, lifting them to second place in the group with an NRR of +3.050 and tightening the squeeze on Pakistan.

Pakistan now faces a complex qualification scenario. With a net run rate of -0.464, the former champions must not only beat Sri Lanka by a substantial margin — potentially as much as 70 runs — but also depend on the outcome of the crucial clash between England and New Zealand.

According to statistician Mazher Arshad, if England defeat New Zealand by 20 runs, Pakistan would still need a 50-run victory over Sri Lanka to edge into the semi-finals on net run rate.

However, if the England-New Zealand match is washed out, New Zealand would progress, ending Pakistan’s campaign.

As the Super Eights reach their climax, Pakistan’s fate now rests as much on results elsewhere as on their own performance.